The Multipolar World is Dead
… at least, dead to me.
The multipolar world is an idea which became fashionable after the Iraq war. If the United States, a democratic superpower, can start a war under such blatantly false premises and with such disastrous consequences, then no country should be allowed free reign to be the World Police. Instead, we should let regional powers police their neighborhoods. They know their surroundings best, right? Why not let them manage their “spheres of influence”?
John Meirsheimer argues for the multipolar order. He posits that the attempt by the United States to create a liberal world order sowed the seeds of its own destruction: globalization has not led to democratization, it made the average person more poor and eroded their sense of belonging. Consequently, both within the US and abroad (Russia, China, increasingly, India…) people have turned from liberal democracy to nationalism and authoritarianism.
As a result, he argues, the US must stop attempting to spread democracy, and refocus on establishing a dominant and self-sufficient economic position to better confront China. It must pull Russia (authoritarian or not) into its military orbit, also to balance China. It must restrict NATO and allow Russia free reign in its neighborhood, and beyond — from Kazakhstan to Syria. Resist any temptation to discipline or change other countries — and focus on exploitation. Take the natural gas. Allow (even help) the Russian military to strengthen to block China.
The United States, it seems, took this to heart. The last gasp of liberal world order policy was probably Obama allowing French intervention in Lybia. Well, as he put it later, “don’t do stupid shit”. We did not prevent Russia from crushing the opposition in Syria. We barely reacted when Russia annexed parts of Ukraine. We did not sanction Putin and his cronies even as he extended his rule by inventing new term limits for himself. We watched corruption and ethno-nationalism take root in Russia and did nothing.
I’m someone who opposed the Iraq war from the start. I was deeply disillusioned about US judgment, and so to an extent all this used to make sense to me. But my acceptance of this was predicated on a false belief that other states would be somehow better at managing things. We, the US, were too proud, too ambitious. We could invade Iraq and declare “Mission Accomplished” and expect them to thank us and live happily forever after. We don’t understand other countries! What did the folksy “Dubya” know about Iraq? Surely other countries can do better.
Enter Russia, stage left (on my globe). We all watched Putin’s road to war in Ukraine as a slow motion train wreck. Putin built up an army of about 150 thousand. “Will he do it?” my coworkers asked. I said I did not know. It was a moment not unlike the leadup to the invasion of Iraq, when a million people marched in NYC against the war, and yet everything was already decided.
In every aspect, Russia seemed determined to outdo the US invasion of Iraq. A horrible war (over 200 thousand dead in less than a year), under false pretenses (Nazis? With a Jewish President? Really…), with disastrous consequences (MIllions of refugees, economic disaster for Russia and the world)… Expecting to be welcomed as heroes. Acting on false assumptions and failing to recognise the most basic truths about their neighbors.
Other Russians have told me — I don’t understand the history, the country. When I called them, panicking, the morning of February 24th, they told me this was just a small operation which would be happily resolved within days. Yet what was happening was obvious to me, half a world away, and after 30 years as an immigrant. I knew Ukraine had a well trained army which had been fighting Russia — supported rebels non stop for eight years. Ukraine had thirty years of independence and fought several wars for independence in the past. Many of the “cossacks” who inhabited the area had run away from Tzars seeking independence. I knew what happened during previous Russian operations in Chechnya and Syria: grueling campaigns, cities flattened. Over in days? I was incredulous that they could be so wrong.
And so, to me, the multipolar world is dead. I will no longer accept the premise that the US can abandon its principles and somehow entrust security to totalitarian states. The notion that we can abandon efforts to stop the growth of authoritarian regimes like Putin’s. They are not only wrong because they abuse their people; they are wrong because they ultimately fail in the most basic decision making processes. Nor will their evil remain contained within their borders. It will creep and spread, or outright explode.
John Meirsheimer presented a tidy theory. As the old adage goes, all theories are wrong — some are useful. This one has not proven so. A new theory must replace it. I am not a political theorist to come up with one; I am just a guy living in the United States, trying to stay informed as a voter and a citizen. And until someone comes up with a better theory, I propose we, as a nation, carry on trying to do… “the next right thing”.
And what is “the next right thing”? That means acting on your principles, from your heart, hopefully tempered by wisdom. I can’t come up with anything better. There is no political theory that will tell you what to do in every situation. And until someone comes up with such a theory, I will continue to take it one step at a time, and yes, to steal awesome quotes from the cartoons my children watch. You go, Princess Anna! Do your next right thing!