I opposed the Iraq War. So what? The war happened anyway. Was there any point in speaking out?

We call our society democratic — but is it?

I think so, because when I look at how we act as a country, it’s generally along the lines of majority opinion. The story of the Iraq War is like this — in its rise, and its fall, it reflected the will of the public.

I may have opposed the invasion of Iraq, but in the days before the start of the war, a majority of Americans said they supported it with or without UN approval. This was in part because the Bush administration influenced public opinion by manipulating facts to suit their purposes, while a docile media ecosystem blithely went along. But however the public opinion was manufactured, we cannot deny that support for the war was strong.

Looking at the story thus far, it could have happened in a democracy or an autocracy: the government lies to influence public opinion and starts an unjust war. But what happened next could not have happened in an autocracy — the Bush administration lost control of the messaging and was swept away by public discontent.

Weapons of mass destruction were never found: this truth could not be concealed. Chaos in Iraq persisted, demonstrating that American troops were not wanted there. The Bush administration’s case — both the WMD component and the nation building part — fell apart. Public opinion soured, with 50–60% of Americans saying the US should not have invaded in 2006. The Republicans were punished in the 2006 elections, and again in 2008. None of the public facing architects of the war — Bush, Cheney, Ashcroft, Rumsfeld, Rice — held positions of power again.

The repercussions did not stop with the Republicans. Hillary Clinton, who voted for the war, lost the nomination to Barack Obama, who was against it from the start. After being elected, Obama set US foreign policy on a different course, trying to work with allies instead of going alone, as he did in Libya. And even on Libya, he felt he went too far, regretting the decision to intervene in that country’s civil war, and as a result did not intervene in Syria, leaving that to Russia. The Iran nuclear deal, put together with the help of many parties, was the culmination of this approach. How far we had come from 2003, when the invasion of Iran was on the table!

In the foreign policy establishment, the neocon “Team America World Police” spirit was giving way to multilateralism and isolationism. Thoughts of NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine, pushed by the Bush administration in 2008, were abandoned. Russia was free to do as it wished in North Africa and the Middle East. The “Multipolar World” philosophy of John Mearsheimer taught that if we just let the major players take care of their own neighborhoods, they will do so responsibly, and we will have a more peaceful world. This philosophy seemed to be taking root.

Trump’s “America First” presidency was the logical culmination of this trend — the neocon credentials of Hillary Clinton could not bring her victory in 2016. Trump called NATO into doubt every change he got, considering it an artificial, purposeless boondoggle. Although he talked tough on Iran, this was only for show — he passed up all opportunities to attack it militarily.

Today, only 33% of Americans think the Iraq war was a good idea, and only 16% think it went well. Public opinion changed, and with it, the course of the country changed. What’s more, it will continue to change, as public opinion changes.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has showed Americans that leaving affairs to nations which do not play by the same rules — and have vastly different ideas of ethics — can have severe consequences. From 1990 to 2014, 50–60% of Americans viewed Russia favorably. This support dropped into the 30s after the 2014 annexation. Now, two thirds of Americans now consider NATO and Ukraine friends, and view Russia as an enemy of the United States. Public opinion has shifted once again; NATO has purpose, and the “multipolar world” ideas fade away, for now.

America doesn’t always get it right. We can fall for the lies of a demagogue just like any nation. But so long as our democracy continues to function, we have the possibility of correcting our course. And that correction may just come in the form of ideas which are held by a small minority, but grow spread as they are born out by the facts.